Oscar Predictions

Who will win the Oscars and why...

In just over a week the Academy Awards will kick off. All of the people who put hard work into making 2009's filmy entertainment will be there but only some of them will be rewarded for their efforts. Who will be rewarded is as much about the relationships and politics of Hollywood as the films themselves. As I said in my article on defending Tarantino, I will predict the Oscar winners for the six main categories; best picture, best director, best actor, best actress, best supporting actor, best supporting actress. However, I will also tell you why they will win.

First off, some Oscar ground rules...

1. Awards in these main categories will almost invariably go to "serious" films. By serious I mean ones that have a heart-wrenching, sometimes even depressing message and are more often than not "based on a true story" or a historic event. The episode of Extras where Kate Winslet says she is only doing a holocaust film to bag an Oscar is now infamous because a few years later she won one for her holocaust film The Reader. So don't expect Inglourious Basterds to win much beyond the supporting actor category.
2. The Academy always belate their awards. Once again, Kate Winslet can be out example. She should have won the Oscar for Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind in 2004 which was a much better film than The Reader, both generally and in her performance. However, rule #1 has a lot to do with that. Usually the winner will have been nominated more than once before they win the award. Winslet was nominated twice before snatching the Oscar last year.
3. The Academy Awards are market drivers as well as rewards. The Oscars are a great way of generating publicity towards a film so that it rakes in more at the box office. Often you will see a film that was released in the summer get a re-release just to get a little more cash solely off of the awards season. Therefore, you will see each winner fall into either the go-and-get-more-money box or the thanks-for-getting-so-much-money box.

So with our ground rules in place let us look at the 82nd Academy Awards; category, winner, reason.

Best Picture - Avatar: It didn't snatch the BAFTA but that is because it will take the Oscar home. Why? Because the industry needs to thank it for generating more money than the entire GDP of a small country (see rule #3). It shouldn't win this award, but it will.

Best Director - Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker: This is due to a combination of it being a film about a serious subject (#1) and also so it will generate the money that it didn't manage to on it's original release back in 2009 (#3). Have a look at your local cinema. Go on! I bet you it will be on there within the next three weeks for a couple of days. Additionally, a woman has never won this category so this will be a great excuse to not seem sexist to female directors. Those three reasons plus the fact that it is actually a very well directed movie, which usually helps, (but not always!)

Best Actor - Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart: Poor old Jeff has been considered "off the radar" in Hollywood in recent years, but that is by rich bureaucratic film producers, not the public, we love him! And that has been demonstrated in recent years. So Mr. Bridges is getting a warm handshake back into the mainstream after loosing out when Hollywood thought he was still cool, all the way back in 1984 for Starman (#2).

Best Actress - N/A: Yes I know! I know I said I'd predict them all, but this is a fudging hard one! Most people will shout out "Sandra Bullock!" but I am not so sure. I think this could be her nomination introduction only to win it in later years (#2), which would be brilliant because then she may start making better films like The Blind Side instead of tripe like The Proposal. For that reason, I hope she doesn't win. I'm going to place my money semi on Bullock and the other half of my indecisive mind will go to Carey Mulligan. Well, give her a third and Bullock the rest. Gabrielle Sidibe definitely won't get it for Precious because unfortunately she won't be in much else post-Precious for obvious reasons - it's sad, but true. Although...maybe a goodbye present from the industry?

Best Supporting Actor - Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds: Obviously and deservedly. Tarantino has admitted without him the film wouldn't have been possible and it is true. He was the most detestable SS officer on screen since Ralph Fiennes' Amon Goeth in Schindler's List (which incidentally, he criminally did not win an Oscar for). Yet, Waltz managed to find that goldilocks zone of disgusting whilst lovable...which made him even more frightening. Rules being applied here? Nothing except that he bloody well deserves it! That, and they had to give Tarantino something, didn't they?

Best Supporting Actress - Mo'Nique, Precious: Sidibe will not win best actress yet a film like this deserves something (#1). For this reason Mo'Nique will walk away with best supporting female and next time she goes to see her own film the cinema will be a little more busy (#3).

There you have it. Now all you have to do is watch the 82nd Academy Awards on 7th March and feel your jaw drop as all I said comes true. Smug post-Oscar article coming soon!